Update for May 2019
Green grass and high tides
It has been a strong start to 2019. Although it’s quite a snapback from the gloomy outlook and oversold conditions we saw in late December, historically the markets retreat from this overbought condition and remain fairly flat for the balance of the year.
Most of this year’s rebound is simply timing. After a steep sell-off last year, the major market indexes bottomed in late December. Hence, much of the rally has occurred since the end of December. But let’s not discount the fundamentals.
My take on the rally:
1. Recession fears appear to have faded. Put another way, recessions crush profits and severely dampen the outlook for profits. Earnings growth isn’t very strong right now, but Q1 reports are topping a low hurdle (Refinitiv).
2. After slowing through much of 2018, the global economy appears to be stabilizing.
3. The Federal Reserve is on hold and interest rates remain low. Last year, the 10-year Treasury yield peaked above 3% (Bloomberg). Today, it’s hovering near 2.5%. Given expectations of modest economic growth, options to earn a higher return in safe investments are limited, reducing competition for stocks. This is good in the myopic short- term, but FED policies over the last ten years have created a huge risk imbalance that eventually will re-balance. Most investors are the frog in the slow-boiling pot, and we all know how that ends.
4. Investors remain optimistic that U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators will come to terms on an ever-elusive trade agreement. Here’s a headline in the April 29 Wall Street Journal: “[Treasury Secretary] Mnuchin Suggests China Trade Talks Could Wrap Up by End of Next Week” (or about May 10). It’s a lot of postulating, and the markets in the past week are reacting to every news bite, but in the end the U.S. holds all the cards. China needs us and they know it.
With severe market swings since October of last year, let me pose a question to you. How were you feeling when markets were getting beat up in December? Before you respond, there isn’t a right or wrong answer.
Did you look past the headlines, recognizing that our strategic plan was the best path to long-term success? Did the plan enforce discipline, preventing you from making ill-timed investment decisions? Were you comfortable with adhering to the strategy?
If the answer is “Yes,” your tolerance for risk is incorporated into your approach.
Or, did you get that queasy, unsettling feeling in your gut? Were you rattled by the swiftness of the decline? Did you experience sleepless nights?
If you answered “Yes,” let’s talk. Hedging helps manage risk, but it doesn’t eliminate risk. It’s possible that we may need to make some adjustments to your portfolio that may ease the downside when volatility strikes again.
As always, I’m honored and humbled that you have given me the opportunity to serve as your financial advisor.
THE CONUNDRUM OF COLLEGE
We all want what is best for our children and grandchildren. At an early age, we teach them to eat the right foods, we place them in the best preschools, we encourage them in grade school and high school, and we cheer them on when they excel in extracurricular activities. Put another way, we want our children to succeed in all aspects of life. As our kids wind their way through high school, most of us want them to attend college. For some, it’s not just about going to a university but being accepted by and graduating from the “right one.” Unlike when we were growing up, the pressure today is enormous.
The cost of college has soared. In 1985, the annual tuition, fees, room and board rates charged for full-time undergraduate students at a four-year public university ran $3,859. Thirty years later, the cost had ballooned to $19,189, according to the [[https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=76 National Center for Education Statistics]]. For private schools over the same period: $9,228 to $39,529. That’s a painful hit to the wallet.
The increase in costs is both astounding and sobering. No wonder so many kids today graduate with both a degree and debt.
Of course, these are averages and costs will vary, but they paint an unsettling picture.
Fortunately, the bill isn’t due all at once. Fortunately, there are vehicles that can help ease the burden. And fortunately, the magic of compounding can greatly ease the worries that come with saving for college.
The 529 college savings plan
One such vehicle is the 529 college savings plan. What is a 529 plan? A 529 plan is sponsored by the state or a state agency. It allows someone to save for college (or kindergarten–12th grade). Before we jump in, let me say that this is a high-level overview. If you have any questions about college savings or a 529 plan, please feel free to reach out to me. We can help get you started and maximize the long-term benefits.
1. Pay for qualified educational expenses. One can use the savings for tuition, books, and education-related expenses at accredited universities, vocational-technical schools, and eligible foreign institutions. Funds accumulated in the plan may go to public, private, and religious schools.
2. Tax advantages abound. While there is no deduction when cash is deposited into a 529 plan, any earnings are not subject to federal taxes, and qualified withdrawals are exempt from taxes. Some states also offer full or partial deductions or credits for 529 contributions.
3. Maintain control of the money. Unlike an UGMA account, in which the child will eventually take control of the accumulated funds, you remain in control of the plan. You make sure it goes toward its intended use.
4. Just about anyone can open a 529 plan. Contributions are not limited by the donor’s income. Earn $50,000 per year and you can set up a 529. Earn $500,000 per year and you also qualify.
5. There is no maximum annual contribution. Unlike with retirement accounts, the IRS doesn’t specify an annual maximum contribution. There are no age limits on contributions. Total contributions range from $235,000-$520,000 depending on the state. While most account owners won’t run afoul of the rules, there are some specifics we can discuss if you are considering a large, one-time contribution.
6. 529 plans complement FAFSA. A 529 plan helps maximize your ability to pay for college without jeopardizing financial aid. The 529 account is the parent’s asset, much as if you had saved the money under your own name. However, with the 529, you’ll receive tax benefits that wouldn’t accrue if it were in a taxable account under the parent’s name.
While 529s are an excellent vehicle, no plan is perfect. So, let’s look at some potential pitfalls.
1. The plan does not guarantee it will cover the full cost of a four-year college education. However, the earlier you get started, the better. We can provide you with various scenarios, i.e. contribution levels, compounding, inflation, etc.
3. You don’t need the savings in your 529 after all. What if Johnny received a full ride to college? It’s a high-class problem, but still, alternatives must be considered.
· You can withdraw up to the amount of the scholarship without paying the 10% penalty.
· You can hold the money for graduate school.
· You could change the beneficiary to another qualifying family member without a tax or penalty.
· You may name yourself as the beneficiary if you intend to take classes.
· Or, you could consider keeping the account active for a grandchild.
If money is used for noneducational purposes, you will likely incur taxes and a 10% penalty on the earnings.
4. You must time your contributions and withdrawals carefully. Contributions must be made by December 31, though states that offer tax advantages may extend the deadline to April 15. And, make sure that any withdrawals coincide with qualified expenses in that year.
As I mentioned earlier, this is a high-level overview. It’s designed to shed light on one vehicle that can be used to save for education. It’s also designed to ease what seems like a difficult burden for many–saving for college.